Weather experts are predicting that a warm spell could return to Ireland next month as the country shakes off a recent chilly trend. Long-range weather maps suggest temperatures may rebound within weeks, peaking in the mid-20s. While subject to change this far out, there are growing hopes for the return of high pressure which would bring warm and settled conditions such as those Ireland enjoyed in June. July has seen temperatures hover around average while rain, hail, thunder and strong winds all bore down.
However in two weeks that could all change as a potential weather U-turn is being pinpointed for the weekend beginning August 5. Independent forecaster Alan O’Reilly shared the latest models on his Carlow Weather social media accounts saying that they “offer hope” but stressed they are “too far out to be reliable”. He said: “If you need some hope ahead of the rain then this chart from GFS for 2 weeks time offers hope with nice settled high pressure. However I’m afraid in reality it’s way too far out to be reliable, we all need some hope though right?”
Meanwhile, British meteorologist James Peacock explained that a hot airmass from the tropics could reach the north of Europe, including Ireland. He wrote on Twitter: “It’s a long way out so not to be taken as given, but the overnight GFS forecast model run well illustrated how changing forcing from the tropics could shift the weather patterns across Europe in a way that allows the v. hot airmass to spread N. “First a low drops to the west, which marks a westward shift to the mean position of a trough, into which further lows then move. This causes heat to (re)build and gradually spread northward from SW to NW Europe.” He said the warm and dry weather could hit Ireland towards the end of July, but added that anything could still happen. “I’m afraid the best I can truthfully say for now is that there are some hints – nothing more than that yet – of warmer and drier weather starting to take hold by the end of July. I do, however, think it would be very surprising if it didn’t happen by mid-August at the very latest,” he concluded.
Meanwhile Met Eireann says there is currently no sign of any major weather improvement. However it did pinpoint the dates the country could see “drier than average rainfall” and “slightly above average temperatures”. The National Forecaster issues monthly forecasts that it says “can at times provide an insight into weather patterns in the month ahead.” However it cautioned that they “have generally low skill” as “forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.” Giving its long-range forecast for the first week of August it said: “While confidence in week 2 is lower, there is a slight indication for lower pressure over the eastern half of the country and higher pressure to the southwest centred out in the Atlantic. The mean air temperature is signalling to be normal for this time of year. Precipitation amounts are signalled to be lower than average over much of the country in week 2.”
Looking ahead to August 7 to August 13, it continued: “There is increasing uncertainty in the forecast for week 3. There is no distinct signal for either high or low pressure over the country. With this, temperatures are indicating that they will remain normal again for the time of year. Rainfall values are signalling about normal or drier than average for most areas apart from some northern parts which may see slightly more rainfall than average.” And for the week of August 14 to August 20, it concluded: “In week 4 the forecast confidence is low. Again, this week there is no distinct signal for either high or low pressure over the country. Mean air temperature has a small signal for slightly above average temperatures in the northern half of the country. While rainfall amounts are expected to be close to the August climatological average.”
In the meantime, Ireland is set for yet more unsettled weather this weekend. Met Eireann says there will be rain or showers “most days” and it will feel “a little cooler than average too”. Giving a day-by-day breakdown, it said: “Outbreaks of rain Friday afternoon and evening, with the best of dry spells in southern parts. Rain will be heavy at times in the north and west, which may cause localised flooding. Southwesterly winds will largely be light or moderate, with fresh winds along Atlantic coasts. Evening temperatures of 14C to 17C.
“Saturday will be dull, misty and wet with ongoing outbreaks of rain, most persistent in Ulster. Humid with highest temperatures of 16C to 19C or 20C, best values across Leinster. Southwest winds will be mostly light, with moderate winds in the southwest.
“Still some lingering low cloud and rain on Sunday morning, but brighter skies will gradually extend from the northwest. Scattered showers will follow for the afternoon and evening, a few heavy in the south. Highs of 17C to 21C in mostly moderate northerly winds.”